The NFL already makes more than $10 billion a year from TV deals—but analysts say the league may still be undercharging. The catch: The next round of price hikes could eventually show up on your cable or streaming bill.
Another week, another prominent financial analyst detailing the extremely high stakes of the NFL’s upcoming rights renegotiations.
After Bank of America Securities recently warned of the elevated financial risk for each of the league’s incumbent linear rights holders, Guggenheim similarly said in a note Tuesday that the league is well positioned to increase its rights fees significantly beyond the more than $10 billion it currently gets annually.
In particular, Guggenheim pointed to the NBA, which elevated its cost-per-viewer-hour basis to $3.55 in its new set of domestic media rights with Amazon, ESPN, and NBC—collectively worth $77 billion over 11 years, though the firm’s calculation does omit some additional included rights in those deals such as the WNBA, League Pass, and international distribution. Comparatively, NFL games in 2025 commanded a cost per viewer hour of just $1.20 in its current deals, with the disparity from the NBA only growing starker as the NFL posted its best regular-season viewership since 1989.
“The higher cost of the NBA rights on a per-viewer-hour basis is informative but not definitive in the context of increased value potential for NFL rights,” Guggenheim said. “Either the NBA partners overpaid significantly relative to performance or the NFL should drive significantly more long-term value to partners than is implied at current rates.”
That, along with the NFL’s continued status as by far the most-watched programming in U.S. television, will drive “significant cost increases” in the next set of rights deals, Guggenheim said.
“Partners will likely pursue aggressive monetization through affiliate rate increases, station revenue, and advertising pricing, with the majority of these costs passed through to consumers,” the firm said.
“What we focus on is ‘How do we reach the broadest number of people, on every broadcast? How do we make an event out of that?’” Goodell said in response to a Front Office Sports question. “We select our partners in part for that reason. Economics are obviously part of that, the value that’s created. But at the end of the day, we want partners who are going to broaden our audience.”
Raising the pressure further is a small package of games already on the market. The NFL regained control of four games annually amid its complex and newly closed equity deal with ESPN parent company Disney. The league is shopping that inventory now, and that will provide an updated sense of what both linear and streaming networks are willing to pay.
Guggenheim also expects two other key outcomes from the coming negotiations, and as soon as the 2027 season: a further reduction in the number of games scheduled in Sunday afternoon windows as the league continues to create even more standalone windows, and a potential staggering of the timing of some future rights deals, veering from the current, more unified structure.
“The NFL is not looking to kill television,” Guggenheim said. “The league is looking to maximize value and grow global popularity, while maintaining a strong connection with its existing fan base by providing consumer choice. … A strong renewal with longstanding Sunday afternoon partners would set a foundation for league revenue growth well into the next decade and provide an early look at the incremental value potential.”
SPONSORED BY ON LOCATION
Secure Early Access to LA28
The Olympic Games return to Los Angeles in 2028, and fans and companies are given a rare head start. As the Official Olympic Hospitality Provider for LA28, On Location is offering fully refundable deposits that unlock priority access to Olympic Hospitality packages when they go on sale in spring 2026.
From private suites and premium seating to curated citywide hospitality experiences and top-tier hotel options, guests can secure an effortless, luxury-driven LA28 journey before demand surges. Olympic Hospitality brings proven expertise from Paris 2024 and Milano Cortina 2026, now elevated with the energy of L.A.
A deposit today ensures you’re first in line for an unforgettable, once-in-a-generation Olympic Games hospitality experience. Read the full article here.
LOUD AND CLEAR
Rahm Rips DP Tour
Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images
“They’re extorting players like myself and young players that have nothing to do with the politics of the game.”
—Jon Rahm on the DP World Tour’s dispute with LIV golfers. The two-time major champion (2021 U.S. Open and 2023 Masters) blasted the tour’s requirement that LIV players compete in six DP World Tour events—and pay fines for past LIV participation—saying it unfairly targets players caught in golf’s ongoing divide.
Rahm’s outstanding fines could total as much as $3 million, and an active DP World Tour membership is required to play for Europe in the Ryder Cup, leaving his status for the 2027 event in Ireland uncertain as the standoff continues. Read the story.
ONE BIG FIG
Costly Suspension
Brett Davis-Imagn Images
$15 million
The amount of money Braves outfielder Jurickson Profar will forfeit after receiving a 162-game suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. The suspension is his second related to PEDs, previously earning an 80-game ban in 2025 for human chorionic gonadotropin. Profar becomes the sixth player to be suspended for a full season after MLB increased the penalty for second-time offenders to 162 games in 2014.
The 12-year veteran was scheduled to play for Team Netherlands in the World Baseball Classic, but he will now be ineligible for the tournament. Profar joined Atlanta during the 2025 offseason, signing a three-year, $42 million contract.
SPONSORED BY ON LOCATION
The Ultimate Summer Stage
At the Olympic Games, every moment counts—and with priority access to LA28 Olympic Hospitality, you can be a part of it all.
Ticket-Inclusive Hospitality Packages unlock a front-row seat to the world’s biggest sporting moments, paired with premium service, curated venues, and access to the most in-demand sessions across iconic Los Angeles locations.
Looking to extend the experience? Ticket-Inclusive Overnight Packages combine guaranteed tickets with in-venue gourmet dining and early hotel selection, with every detail designed to feel effortless.
From private suites to elevated shared spaces, this is the gold standard for taking in the action in comfort and style.
Make every moment unforgettable with Olympic Hospitality at LA28.
