NIL Is Shrinking the Pool of NBA Draft Entrants

Since the NCAA allowed athletes to cash in on NIL (name, image, and likeness), the number of basketball players declaring early for the NBA draft has steadily declined. In 2021, 363 players—including international players and NCAA athletes—entered their names. This year, the total has dropped to 106 players, the fewest since 2016. Fifty-one “non-international” players have since opted out, leaving just 32 non-international players in the draft.

The opportunity to earn money in college gives players leverage they’ve never had before when negotiating with NBA teams. Agents are advising many players to remain in college due to the NIL earnings—and new revenue-sharing dollars from the House v. NCAA settlement—two agents tell Front Office Sports. 

“If you are not a guaranteed first-round pick, top-20, top-30 guy—unless you really do not want to play college basketball anymore, we are recommending and most of them are staying in school as long as they possibly can,” Michael Raymond, president and founder of Raymond Representation, tells FOS. 

For those with little to no chance of making an NBA roster, the calculus is obvious. But even for players on the bubble of being a first-round pick, eschewing the draft is often the best option. 

In the pre-NIL era, players would be happy to settle for two-way contracts, or Exhibit 10s, with no guarantee they’d be chosen in the second round. NBA two-way contracts max out around $600,000, and straight G League deals start at around $40,500. They weren’t making any money in college, and the allure of professional life was just too great.

But now, the NIL earnings are more than enough of a fallback in case they aren’t getting drafted. A power conference program would have had to spend about $3 million to $4 million in aggregate to remain competitive, a source previously told FOS. That’s an average of a healthy six figures for each of the 13 scholarship players. And the top players in the country, often those vying for these NBA roster spots, are often making seven figures. The freedom of movement provided by the transfer portal allows athletes to negotiate for more earnings, too.

“Unless [an NBA team] was willing to guarantee a spot, there’s no way that I’m playing with the kid’s future,” Alex Saratsis, Octagon’s co-managing director of basketball, tells FOS. 

This past spring, UAB forward Yaxel Lendeborg was dubbed one of the best big men available in the NCAA transfer portal. He committed to Michigan, a power conference program with major resources, while also declaring for the NBA draft, where he was projected to be a late first-round pick. He ultimately withdrew from the draft at the end of May, and he will play his last year in college for the Wolverines.

Lendeborg, who signed with Octagon a few weeks before deciding to stay in Ann Arbor, wasn’t the only one Saratsis represents who made that decision. Notre Dame’s Markus Burton decided not to enter the draft at all and play another year with the Fighting Irish. Greek player Neoklis Avdalas reportedly received a second-round grade after entering the draft and opted to withdraw and commit to Virginia Tech.

“Why would we [advise them to declare] when they’ve got an opportunity to make millions of dollars back in college, continue to prove their game, and take control back in their careers?” Saratsis says.

No decision is without risk, of course. A player who stays in school or transfers could lower their draft stock with an unimpressive season, Raymond says. They could also incur a season-ending, or even career-ending, injury. But the prevailing wisdom is to keep players in school for as long as possible.

That doesn’t mean that one-and-dones are going completely extinct, however. 

For a select few players, there’s a clear reason to enter the draft after just one year in the NCAA. Cooper Flagg is the No. 1 projected overall draft pick, slated to go to the Dallas Mavericks, after a sensational freshman year at Duke that ended with a heartbreaking loss to Houston in the Final Four. Flagg was likely making millions of dollars between Duke’s nebulous NIL collective and multiple top-tier brand endorsements. But in his first year in the NBA, he’ll earn about $14 million in his NBA salary alone—on top of all his existing endorsements. 

“I think there’s going to be at least five to ten players that probably just say, ‘Listen, at the end of the day, I’m going top 10. I’m going to make millions of dollars. I want to play in the NBA,’” Raymond says.

Outside the obvious lottery picks, some players just “really care about the professional lifestyle,” Raymond says. “They don’t care about the money. It’s more about, like, their dreams to play in the NBA. They want to make it happen as soon as possible.” He points to Bronny James, who wanted to play alongside his dad in Los Angeles, as an example.

But those players will continue to be outliers. This year, schools will be able to pay players directly thanks to the House v. NCAA settlement in addition to NIL. Some have raised concerns that, because there’s a cap on the revenue-sharing pool and new restrictions on NIL collective deals, players might end up making less than they did last year (though not everyone agrees that that would be the case). Either way, it will still pay to stay in college—both literally and figuratively.

Says Saratsis: “It’s almost like you’re taking control of your career.”