March Madness Upsets Alive and Well Despite New ‘Free Agency’ Era

The biggest question going into this year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament was whether Cinderella stories or major upsets were still possible in the era of the unrestricted transfer portal and NIL/revenue sharing.

Only hours into the Round of 64, upsets—and perhaps even a Cinderella story—are alive and well. Thursday’s slate of games saw three notable upsets before 10 p.m. E.T.: Two mid-majors, No. 11 VCU and No. 12 High Point, as well as No. 11 Texas, all knocked off higher-seeded programs UNC, Wisconsin, and BYU, respectively. 

Going into the tournament, college basketball pundits and media members predicted that Cinderella runs and big upsets might be dead in college basketball’s new era of “free agency.” That was the case last year, the first year of the unrestricted transfer portal. For the second time in modern NCAA tournament history, all four one-seeds made the Final Four: power conference programs Florida, Auburn, Houston, and Duke. 

Beginning in 2024, players were allowed to transfer as many times as they wanted without penalty. Plus, schools could pay players through both name, image, and likeness (and this year, with revenue-sharing deals) often powered by wealthy donors and boosters. As a result, it was easier than ever for wealthy power conference programs to lure talented players from mid- and low-major teams, making it virtually impossible for lesser-resourced programs to retain talented rosters. 

But as some coaches predicted at the time, the 2025 season may have been an anomaly.

On Thursday afternoon, a potential Cinderella story was born when No. 12 High Point took down No. 5 Wisconsin 83–82. The Big South conference tournament champions made the tournament last year, too, but were bounced in the first round. 

“They said we ain’t played nobody—we played somebody now,” High Point coach Flynn Clayman said during the postgame interview. “Nobody would play us, just like nobody would play Miami (Ohio). But they gotta play us in this tournament.” 

Then, Thursday night, No. 11 VCU overcame a 19-point deficit to take down No. 6 UNC in overtime, with a final score of 82–78. The Rams, the Atlantic 10 conference champions, aren’t a Cinderella story anymore—their moment came in 2011, when the program, led at the time by coach Shaka Smart, made it all the way to the Final Four. But they are still considered a mid-major, or non-power conference or Big East program, with fewer resources to contend with. 

“It don’t matter who we play. UNC, it don’t matter,” VCU guard Terrence Hill Jr. told reporters after the game. “Blue bloods, it don’t matter. We got the same mindset every game.”

Minutes after VCU’s win, No. 11 Texas knocked off No. 6 BYU—a program expected to at least make the Sweet 16, especially given its led by star freshman AJ Dybantsa, The Longhorns won 79–71. 

The competition was fierce even for games where the higher seeded programs prevailed. No. 16 Siena, for example, led overall one-seed Duke for the majority of their first round game Thursday afternoon. The program, led by Syracuse legend Gerry McNamara, only relinquished the lead in the last five minutes of the game. The final score: 71–65.

Another potential Cinderella, the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks, won the First Four on Wednesday night and will face No. 6 Tennessee on Friday.

“Hopefully it shows, hey, listen, we’re just as good as any of these other P5s or P6s that are going .500 in their leagues or whatever out there,” RedHawks coach Travis Steele told reporters after their First Four win. “There’s some really good mid-major teams. Really good.”